EXCLUSIVE: Novus Group's analysis shows Africa’s mining sector at a crossroads

Novus Group says the Africa’s mining sector is at a crossroads as resource sovereignty, infrastructure bottlenecks, and political risks dominate Mining Indaba 2025 (Image supplied)

Analysing conversations on Africa’s mining sector from industry events like the Investing in Africa Mining Indaba and subsequent media coverage, interesting takeouts emerge on the developments in reshaping Africa’s mineral resource landscape.

This includes the push for local value addition to infrastructure challenges affecting investment. Novus Group looked into how these changes impact strategic interest as Africa balances resource sovereignty with sustainability and community engagement.

Dominant conversations

Here are the dominant conversations according to the recent Novus Group Mining Indaba Media Report.

Africa’s shift to resource sovereignty

African nations are prioritising local beneficiation over raw material exports. According to the general media consensus, South Africa’s draft critical minerals strategy is seen as a step toward keeping more value within the continent.

Indigenous communities recognised

For the first time in 31 years, mining-affected communities were formally included as key stakeholders. Many commentators regarded this as a milestone for inclusive decision-making in the sector.



Infrastructure bottlenecks

Despite investment discussions, logistics remain a major hurdle. Reports indicate that rail constraints, particularly within Transnet, are limiting growth, with calls for increased public-private partnerships to address these challenges.

Political uncertainty and investment risks

Statements made by Minister Gwede Mantashe, particularly regarding withholding minerals from the US, sparked concerns among investors. While government reassurances followed, media coverage reflected ongoing uncertainty around the political and investment landscape.


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Balancing climate goals with energy security

South Africa’s classification of coal as a "critical mineral" ignited debate. Some stakeholders criticised the move for environmental reasons, while others highlighted the importance of coal in maintaining energy stability.

Mixed economic performance

Reports indicate a 49% drop in mining tax contributions for 2024. However, key deals—such as the Botswana-De Beers diamond agreement and a renewable diesel partnership between Sasol, Anglo American, and De Beers—provided positive momentum for the industry.



Media sentiment: a divided narrative

• Positive (42%): Highlighted record attendance, indigenous community inclusion, industry partnerships, and improved safety.
  
• Neutral (33%): Focused on factual reporting of policies, economic trends, and infrastructure issues.
  
• Negative (25%): Criticised accessibility, infrastructure challenges, and political uncertainty, with protests and Mantashe’s remarks drawing backlash.

Media coverage and social media reach

The Mining Indaba 2025 received extensive media coverage, with 2,705 articles across broadcast, online, and print media.

The event’s total potential reach was over 1.2 billion people, with an Advertising Value Equivalent (AVE) of R107m.


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The road ahead

"The Mining Indaba 2025 showed a real shift towards resource sovereignty and sustainability in Africa.

“While there are great opportunities, infrastructure and political uncertainty remain challenges.

“The focus now must be on turning plans into action that benefits both the industry and mining communities," says Joe Hamman, director of Novus Group.

As Africa’s mining sector moves forward, the decisions made in 2025 could shape its future for years to come.