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The research, commissioned by Capital Connect, shows total retail sales for 2024 are forecasted to be 19% higher in November 2024 and 48% higher in December 2024, than the average retail sales for the first 10 months of the year.
The data, from research conducted by the Bureau of Market Research (BMR), projects total retail sales of nearly R169bn in December 2024 and R136bn in November 2024, compared to a monthly average retail sales of R114bn for January 2024 to October 2024.
This shows how consumer behaviour has evolved in recent years, with shoppers using November as a warm-up for a month-long festive season shopping spree.
Retail sales performance can be broken down as follows:
Retail sub-sectorº | Average Jan to Oct 2024 | Nov 2024 | Dec 2024 |
General dealers | R53.7 billion | R64.2 billion | R76.4 billion |
Retailers of food, beverages and tobacco in specialised stores | R9.6 billion | R9.9 billion | R14.5 billion |
Retailers in pharmaceutical and medical goods, cosmetics and toiletries | R9.1 billion | R8.9 billion | R9.9 billion |
Retailers in textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods | R17.8 billion | R23.4 billion | R38 billion |
Retailers in household furniture, appliances and equipment | R4.2 billion | R6 billion | R6.4 billion |
Retailers in hardware, paint and glass | R8.9 billion | R10.4 billion | R9.8 billion |
All other retailers | R10.8 billion | R13.2 billion | R13.9 billion |
ºNumbers rounded up or down to one decimal point.
“Black Friday has become more than just a single day of deals—it’s the kick-off for festive season shopping,” says Steven Heilbron, CEO of Capital Connect.
“With signs of improved consumer confidence this year, Black Friday is a potential springboard into a strong holiday season for South African retailers.
“Our data projects that sales momentum will carry from November into December this year, particularly in sectors like general goods, clothing, specialised food and beverages, furniture and electronics. To maximise revenues, retailers should strategically plan inventory and marketing to meet rising demand.”
Retailers can capitalise on the springboard effect through actions such as:
“As retailers prepare for the holiday shopping season, fast access to opportunity capital becomes crucial to maximise profitability,” says Heilbron.