South Africa’s GDP remained lethargic with an expansion of 0.1% q/q seasonally adjusted (not annualised) but still mildly above market expectations of a contraction. However, agriculture continues to be on the mend following the drought-induced contraction of 8.7% year-on-year in 2024.
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123RFAgriculture GDP outperformed other sectors after surging by 15.8% quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted, in Q1 of 2025, with the largest contribution to quarterly growth of 0.4 of a percentage point to the positive South Africa GDP growth.
This reflects a significant improvement in seasonal conditions that spurred field crops, horticulture, and animal subsectors, which underpinned the Q1 spud in agriculture growth.
Field crops rebound with bumper harvest
Activity in field crops was robust with the summer crop (maize, soybeans, sunflower, sorghum, groundnuts, and drybeans) harvest rebounding by 15.7% year-on-year to almost 18 million tonnes.
This is accompanied by relatively strong commodity values with average prices for South Africa’s biggest staple crop, maize, up by 39% and 18% year-on-year, respectively year-on-year for white and yellow varieties in Q1 of 2025.
Sugar and horticulture post solid gains
An additional component of the field crops, sugar, is forecast to jump 7% year-on-year to 2.1 million tonnes. The horticulture industry also posted good gains with limited production disruptions due to the relatively higher dam levels for irrigation and sustained electricity.
This saw good harvests for citrus, table grapes, and vegetables. The wine industry reported an 11% year-on-year growth in wine grape harvest at 1.24m tonnes, according to Vinpro.
The livestock industry saw, on average, a 5% advance in meat prices and increased availability, with red meat slaughter (cattle and pigs) up 1.5% year-on-year in Q1 of 2025.
Agri exports climb despite global challenges
On the export front, quarterly agriculture exports as per Trade Map data rose by 10% year-on-year to a total value of $3.36bn underpinned by higher volumes and prices despite the challenging global environment.
The benign inflation and interest rate outlook following a 0.25% cut in May 2025, with a further reduction in the offing later in the year, bodes well for the rebound in consumer demand and expansion in the agriculture sector.
