Black Friday-Cyber Monday 2026 strategy starts with data

Physical retail generated a larger share than online during the same window. Instore transactions represented 10.75% of total holiday transaction volume, while 11.52% of total festive revenue was generated instore during the four-day BF-CM period.

These figures highlight how intense retail activity has become during BF-CM. They also paint a picture of consumer intent and patterns that can be used to enhance retail strategy and planning well in advance of the BF-CM season in 2026.

The Ecentric Black Friday-Cyber Monday 2025 Index measures the proportion of festive retail activity that takes place over these four retail days each year. It uses selected transaction data processed by Ecentric Payment Systems and analyses both instore and online transactions. This data is then compared against total retail activity across the full festive trading period from 01 November to 24 December, allowing the index to track how much consumer spending concentrates into BF-CM.

Retailers can use this data to understand how consumer behaviour changes, and what can trigger these changes, during peak promotional periods.

Over the past two years, the Index has found key year-on-year changes in how consumers shop during BF-CM. Online retail activity continues to grow in absolute terms with total festive period online transactions increasing from 2,621,792 in 2024 to 2,973,083 in 2025, while online revenue rose from R658.2m to R695.8m.

However, this past year showed that the share of online activity that occurred in 2025 softened slightly. Online transaction share decreased from 9.61% in 2024 to 9.08% in 2025, and online revenue share declined from 11.29% to 10.6%. At the same time, physical retail strengthened with in-store transaction share increasing from 10.64% in 2024 to 10.75% in 2025, while instore revenue share increased from 11.3% to 11.52%. Across the broader festive season, in-store transaction volume increased from 73,155,924 to 77,517,279, while in-store revenue grew from R34.5bn to R36.3bn.

These changes suggest that physical retail continues to play a significant role in peak shopping periods, particularly for product categories where customers value instore experiences before purchasing. It’s also indicative of how retail is leaning into experiential BF-CM, bringing stores and promotions to life with engaging offers, pricing strategies and activations. In 2026, more of the same is indicated for both instore and online sales.

For instore, consumers still value the ability to see, touch and experience products, especially high value items, before purchasing. In 2026, leaning into tactile and experiential engagement will create consumer engagement in ways that online can’t replicate. Exclusive instore deals, product demonstrations, limited time promotions and experiential merchandising create urgency and encourage customers to move their spend instore during BF-CM.

Online, however, may be experiencing less traction because of heavy discounting which drives transaction volumes but can reduce revenue share. Retailers can enhance profitability through bundled offers, tiered discounts, buy more-save more promotions, and targeted incentives. Retailers should tailor promotions for different customer segments even more tightly in 2026, introducing new customer offers, loyalty offers, targeted promotions for high value customers, and re-engagement campaigns for inactive shoppers.

Online must compete on price and on ease and speed of purchase, so improving the digital experience can help increase conversion rates through simplified checkouts, mobile optimisation and faster payment processing. The goal for 2026 is to deepen organic omnichannel experiences that pull customers through from online to instore, or from instore to online, with smooth payment pathways and simplified steps to completing purchases. Simple, swift and accessible payments are key.

A four-day trading window capturing around a tenth of festive retail activity means pricing strategies, promotional planning, operational readiness and payment infrastructure all need to perform under intense conditions. As retailers begin planning for the next festive season, the Ecentric Black Friday-Cyber Monday Index provides a valuable benchmark for evaluating performance and identifying opportunities for improvement and insights that can help you create more informed retail strategies for 2026.

Download the report and its insights into retail strategy for 2026 here: https://www.ecentric.co.za/2025-black-friday-index/

* The Ecentric Black Friday Index measures the proportion of total holiday retail activity that takes place during the four-day Black Friday to Cyber Monday window, using a select basket of retail transaction data (grocery transactions specifically excluded) processed by Ecentric Payment Systems across both online and in-store retail channels. The index compares this activity against the full holiday trading period from 1 November to 24 December to determine how concentrated spending becomes during the BF-CM event.

Ecentric Payment Systems processes more than 20% of South Africa’s card transactions and services 87% of the JSE-listed retailers, by market cap.