Demand from Asia propels South African mining growth
Despite seeing positivity in South Africa's mining production, the industry is still not back to pre-Covid levels. This is according to the Minerals Council South Africa, which was commenting on the country's mining production increase of 1% month-on-month in July 2025, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth. South Africa’s economy recovered slightly as its GDP grew by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter. Notably, mining grew by 3.7% q-o-q, contributing 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in Q2 2025.
Image credit: Mukovhe Mavhungu on Unsplash
This upward momentum is also reflected year-on-year: July marks the third consecutive month of production increases compared to the previous year.
Specifically, mining production soared by 4.4% compared to July of the previous year.
“The positive mining production numbers are encouraging, albeit still lower than the 2019 level (pre-Covid),” said the Minerals Council South Africa in a statement.
“With a diverse minerology and mining expertise, the country possesses significant potential.
“The reforms in the electricity supply industry and the rail sector are a start to further tap into this potential. Policy and regulatory constraints, including incentivising exploration, should follow,” it advised.
The month-on-month mining production increase was supported by growth in gold (+0.9%), iron ore (+5.1%), copper (+4%), and manganese (+8.9%).
However, production in chrome (-1.7%), PGMs (-0.3%), nickel (-23.8%), diamonds (-2.3%), and coal (-1.3%) recorded declines.
On a year-over-year basis, increases in production were recorded in iron ore (+12.2%), chrome (+1.8%), the PGMs (+6.2%), diamonds (+5.9%), and coal (+1.4%). On the other hand, gold (-0.4%), copper (-6.7%), manganese (-3.3%), and nickel (-8.7%) all contracted in July.
The positive m-o-m performance in mining production can be divided into two: domestic and global factors.
On the domestic front, significantly reduced loadshedding due to Eskom’s improved power supply stability allowed mines to operate closer to full capacity, especially in energy-intensive sectors like platinum and gold.
The normalisation of the weather was another factor, considering that it disrupted production in March and April this year.
On the global front, there were at least three factors that explained the July production performance. First, there is a continued strong demand from China and India, particularly for industrial and automotive applications.
Second, global buyers ramped up inventories in anticipation of US tariffs coming into effect.
The third reason relates to the structural supply deficit of the PGMs, especially platinum.
The platinum deficit is expected to be almost one million ounces in 2025.
Given the July growth number, the mining sector is projected to increase by approximately 1% in Q3 2025.
On a q-o-q basis, mining production increased by 4.2% in Q2 2025.
Year-to-date (January to July) mining production declined by 1.9% in 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.
After declining 14.2% in June 2025 (y-o-y), total mineral sales increased slightly by 2.2% to record R73.4bn in July. PGMs (+24.8%), iron ore (+20.5%), and copper (+19.7%) led the commodities that registered stellar increases in y-o-y.
Sales earnings in gold (-8.7%), manganese (-30.9%), nickel (-15.5%), and coal (-1.1%) all declined.