Record rebound in agriculture machinery sales as South Africa's rains boost crop yields

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Excellent rains

Although excessive and consequently delaying the onset of harvesting in some areas, seasonal rains were excellent since the beginning of the year across the production regions. This, combined with an upswing in the Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) helped lift the agriculture machinery sales from the doldrums. The quarterly Agbiz/IDC ACI update showed a sharply increase of 11 points from Q4 of 2024, reaching the highest level since Q4 of 2021 to 70 points in Q1 of 2025 underpinned by the benign interest rate outlook, improved efficiencies at ports, and progress in containment of animal diseases.

The latest data from the South African Agriculture Machinery Association (SAAMA) showed a sustained recovery following a massive contraction in 2024 with the monthly sales for April 2025 up by 9% year‑on‑year (y/y) at 573 units comprised of 92% and 8% tractors and combine harvesters respectively. Total agriculture machinery sales for Q1 of 2025 increased by a whopping 27% relative to the same period in 2024 at 1,827units, and were up 22% for the year to April 2025 at 2,400 units.

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Ramping up harvesting

Though delayed by incessant late seasonal rains, farmers will soon ramp up their harvesting of 4.44 million hectares under summer crops, and further intent to plant 827,970 ha under winter crops for 2025. Commodity prices have been excellent this season with maize touching best levels of over R6,800/t and R5,600/t for white and yellow respectively. Similarly, sunflower and soybean prices reached highs of R10,800/t (+20%y/y) and R9,094/t (+12% y/y) respectively this season.

Although South Africa’s economy remains pedestrian with headwinds from the global economy, the growth outlook is still optimistic including that for agriculture. So far, indications are that we are likely to experience further excellent agriculture conditions for the 2025/26 season as forecasts show probabilities of ENSO‑neutral conditions (El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation) towards year end.

The combination of the lower interest rate outlook amid low inflation and a stronger rand exchange rate bodes well for machinery sales as most are imported.