SA car market off to a flying start in 2026
Market momentum carries into new year
South Africa’s new vehicle market entered 2026 with clear momentum, with January sales showing a solid improvement in underlying demand rather than just a base effect, according to Naamsa.
Aggregate domestic new vehicle sales reached 50,073 units in January 2026, up 3,479 vehicles or 7.5% from the 46,594 units sold in January 2025. Export sales also edged higher to 24,568 units, a 0.6% year-on-year increase.
Naamsa said the performance reflects firmer demand conditions, supported by moderating inflation, stable macroeconomic conditions and resilient consumers.
Dealers dominate, rental demand holds
Of total industry sales, 85.4% represented dealer sales. The vehicle rental industry accounted for 10.9%, while 2.1% went to corporate fleets and 1.6% to government.
The passenger car market recorded 37,190 units, up 7.1% year on year. Rental sales made up 13.3% of new passenger car sales.
Light commercial vehicles such as bakkies and minibuses performed even stronger, with sales rising 11% to 10,996 units. Naamsa said demand in this segment continues to track conditions in the goods-producing sectors, which remain constrained but are showing gradual stabilisation.
Trucks and buses remain under pressure
The medium and heavy commercial vehicle segments continued to struggle.
Medium commercial vehicle sales fell 5.9% year on year to 542 units, while heavy trucks and buses declined 4.3% to 1,345 units. Naamsa said fleet replacement decisions remain closely tied to infrastructure investment, logistics performance, electricity costs and broader investment confidence.
Exports face growing global trade risks
January export sales rose slightly, supported by currency stability and easing imported input cost pressures. However, Naamsa warned that rising protectionism in key export markets is shaping the outlook.
Trade-restrictive measures, shifting industrial policies and deeper trade arrangements between major global regions are expected to increase pressure on South Africa’s vehicle export competitiveness. Cost competitiveness and policy certainty will be critical to sustaining export performance.
Inflation and rates support affordability
Naamsa said the market continues to benefit from an improved inflation and monetary policy environment. Consumer inflation remains within the SARB target range, with long-term expectations at multi-year lows.
Although the repo rate was held at 6.75% in January, markets still expect rate cuts later in 2026, supporting vehicle affordability and buyer sentiment. The rand’s appreciation has also helped to reduce imported inflation pressures and moderate vehicle price increases.
Policy certainty now in focus
Looking ahead, Naamsa said the industry is awaiting the outcome of the review of South Africa’s automotive policy framework, which is key to long-term competitiveness and investment.
In a global market shaped by technological disruption, shifting trade alliances and the energy transition, a clear and forward-looking policy framework will be crucial to secure South Africa’s role in global and regional automotive value chains.